Severe Weather Sunday
There will be a post this evening highlighting the chance of severe weather on Sunday.
SPC Day 3 OutlookDay 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, some severe, will spread across the Southeast and parts of the Middle Atlantic Sunday. ...Discussion... Significant large-scale forcing is expected to spread across portions of the Southeast and Middle Atlantic region during the day3 period as strong mid-level flow translates into this region. Latest model guidance suggest a pronounced surface front will surge into GA/FL Panhandle early in the period then into the lee of the Appalachians Sunday evening. Frontal forcing is expected to aid a significant squall line along the wind shift as it advances east, aided by mid-level height falls. Strong shear profiles will support organized updrafts but the primary storm mode should be linear due to frontal forcing. Greatest buoyancy is expected to extend as far north as southern GA into coastal SC and there is some concern that a few discrete storms could evolve ahead of the front across this region. Have focused 15% severe probs for areas of potentially more instability where isolated supercells may evolve in addition to a linear MCS. Farther north across the Middle Atlantic, low severe probs should suffice where forecast buoyancy is expected to be considerably weaker. Even so, a strongly sheared forced squall line should advance across portions of NC/VA. Damaging winds are the primary threat with this convection. ..Darrow.. 04/13/2018
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 409 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018 NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-140815- Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort- Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Craven-Pamlico-Onslow- 409 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Strong thunderstorms are expected to impact eastern North Carolina Sunday night associated with cold front pushing across the area. Some storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado the primary threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ NCZ095-103-104-140815- Carteret-Outer Banks Dare-Outer Banks Hyde- 409 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Rip Current Risk. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Strong thunderstorms are expected to impact eastern North Carolina Sunday night associated with cold front pushing across the area. Some storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado the primary threats. In addition, strong gradient winds ahead of the front could bring wind gusts around 40 to 45 mph from downeast Carteret County through the Outer Banks Sunday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.