Hazardous Weather Outlook

SPC Day 4 Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
731 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-131145-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Craven-Pamlico-Carteret-Onslow-
Outer Banks Dare-Outer Banks Hyde-
731 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE…Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Friday through Wednesday.

Strong thunderstorms are expected to impact eastern North Carolina
Sunday night associated with cold front pushing across the area. Some
storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts or an isolated
tornado the primary threats.

From SPC:

 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Latest runs of the medium-range models are exhibiting fairly
   considerable differences from one another with eastward progression
   of an eastern U.S. cold front Day 4/Sunday.  The differences in
   handling of synoptic features become even more pronounced beyond, as
   the next Pacific trough enters/crosses the U.S. in the Day 5-8 time
   frame.

   Despite the Day 4 variability in the models, it is apparent that an
   ongoing line/band of storms will progress steadily eastward across
   the Appalachians early in the day, and then continue east across the
   Atlantic Coast states.  While warm-sector instability remains a
   substantial uncertainty -- in part due to variability in the speed
   of the frontal advance toward the coast -- the kinematic environment
   will support organized convection.  As such, will introduce a 15%
   area extending from parts of Virginia south to Florida, with
   damaging wind likely to be the predominant severe risk until frontal
   convection moves offshore.

   Given the aforementioned/increasing differences amongst model
   solutions Day 5 and beyond, no assessment of severe risk can be
   offered at this time.

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