Weekend Update
Active weekend in store for ENC as the next system gets set to push through the area on Saturday.
Currently, we are seeing dry conditions but that will change overnight. As the next system approaches the area to our south west, the atmosphere will begin to moisten and we will begin to see increasing clouds as we go through the early morning hours. Rain begins to build into the region by sunrise where most of the northern tier will be receiving the heaviest rainfall. We will also see a backdoor cold front dropping south over the area passing over the northern sections by mid morning and reaching the coast by Saturday night. Timing and location of this front as well as the track of the surface low will determine where the warm sector will eventually be over ENC. Current thinking here is the cold front will be slow enough and the low pressure’s track far enough north to place southern portions of ENC in the warm sector where conditions will be marginally favorable for convective activity. Instability will be limited in these areas but shear parameters could support strong winds within convection. Update: The SPC has removed ENC from the Slight risk category as persistent cloud cover has limited instability.
The other big story for this event will be the heavy rain as conditions will be ripe for long duration moderate to heavy rains for a good portion of the day. Areas that are in the vicinity of the surface low track will have the best chance at seeing the heaviest rains which could exceed 1.50″ in several places.
And finally, the other feature that everyone was watching is what happens on the back side of this system. Some models indicating enough moisture and cold air could be in place for potential frozen precipitation as the system departs from the region. This will be a race between the quickly departing precipitation and cold air trying to push through on the back side. Let’s not forget its April and any accumulations would be extremely unlikely if this part of the forecast were to verify.
In conclusion, all locations in ENC will be impacted by this system this weekend from this system. The main risk associated with this system will be isolated convection along the southern portions of ENC as well as widespread heavy rain. I do not see any wintry precipitation hazards for all of ENC. Potential changes to the forecast depend on the track of the low pressure over the Carolinas during the day. Any track south would push the warm sector (and severe potential) offshore while a more northerly track increases severe chances inland. I will check back through out the day tomorrow for any needed updates.