Live Updates

Written by on April 15, 2018 in Severe Weather

10:40PM: This will be my last live update of the evening. Advisories will continue to display on the site as usual.


10:30PM: New severe thunderstorm warning issued.


9:55PM: A couple of severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued in the last couple of minutes.



9:40PM: Tornado Warning for Warren and Vance Counties will be allowed to be expire.


9:35PM: Tornado Watch for portions of ENC.

935 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018




BEAUFORT             BERTIE              CARTERET
CHOWAN               CRAVEN              DUPLIN
EDGECOMBE            GATES               GREENE
HALIFAX              HERTFORD            JONES
LENOIR               MARTIN              NASH
NORTHAMPTON          ONSLOW              PAMLICO
PERQUIMANS           PITT                WASHINGTON
WAYNE                WILSON



9:20PM: Tornado Warning for Warren and Vance Counties.

9:15PM: Concerning Mesoscale Discussion 275:

Mesoscale Discussion 275
< Previous MD
MD 275 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0275
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0807 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern NC...Southeast VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 160107Z - 160230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored for a Tornado Watch downstream of
   the ongoing convective line.

   DISCUSSION...Current storm tracks suggest the ongoing convective
   line will reach the edge of Tornado Watch 53 or 54 around 0230Z. The
   southern portion of the line has shown a modest increase in forward
   progression so there is some potential that the increased forward
   speed brings the line to the edge of Tornado Watch 53 before 0230Z.

   Continued theta-e advection is expected to offset nocturnal
   stabilization somewhat with much of the region remaining weakly
   unstable. At the same time, low-level wind fields will strengthen,
   enlarging hodographs and creating a kinematic environment that is
   very supportive of low-level rotation. There is some potential for
   the convective line to be outflow dominant by the time it reaches
   eastern NC/southeast VA but overall convective evolution remains
   uncertain. However, given the favorable kinematic fields, trends
   will be monitored closely and a downstream tornado watch will likely
   be needed soon.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 04/16/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


8:35PM: The last Severe Thunderstorm warning had expired at 7:45 and it has taken 50 minutes for a new one to be issued. 


8:20PM: Let’s add some additional counties to the tornado watch: Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, and Pender Counties until 11:00PM


8:10PM: Flash Flood Warning Issued for Scotland and Hoke Counties.


6:45PM: Tornado Watch has been issued for Edgecombe, Franklin, Halifax, Johnston, Nash, Sampson, Warren, Wayne, and Wilson Counties.


6:00PM: Warnings will be separate posts starting now. I will still update here for other comments.


 5:50PM: Concerning MD #272

Mesoscale Discussion 272
< Previous MD
MD 272 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0272
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0445 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

   Areas affected...Central/Western VA....Central NC....Eastern SC

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...53...

   Valid 152145Z - 152315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52, 53 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will continue
   for the next few hours across Tornado Watches 52 and 53.

   DISCUSSION...A strong convective line continues to progress
   northeastward at 35-40 kt across western VA, central NC, and
   northeast SC. Recent KRAX radar imagery showed a strong rotation
   signature accompanied by a minimum in the correlation coefficient
   moving across Guilford county. These embedded circulations will
   remain possible for the next few hours, particularly with any storm
   mergers than occur with more discrete storms developing ahead of the
   line. Wind fields across the region remain quite strong (0-6 km bulk
   shear over 55 kt per recent KRAX VAD data). Mesoanalysis suggests
   higher shear farther north across VA. Low-level helicity (over 340
   m2 per s2 from 0-3 km from KRAX) is also supportive of updraft
   rotation. Expectation is for the convective line to continue
   northeastward from the next several hours with damaging wind gusts
   and tornadoes possible. Southern portions of this line will likely
   approach the edge of the watch within the next hour and extension in
   area may be needed across portions of far southeast NC and adjacent
   far northeast NC. 

   Farther south (into SC), a second, weaker convective line continues
   to move northeastward across CHS's CWA. Some modest strengthening of
   the updrafts within this line has been noted over the past hour.
   Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible over
   the remaining portions of Tornado Watch 52.

   ..Mosier.. 04/15/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


5:30PM “A Confirmed Tornado Was Located Near Monroeton, Moving Northeast At 40 MPH. Hazard… Damaging Tornado And Quarter Size Hail. Source… Emergency Management Confirmed A Tornado In Guilford County, North Carolina. Impact… Flying Debris Will Be Dangerous To Those Caught Without Shelter. Mobile Homes Will Be Damaged Or Destroyed. Damage To Roofs, Windows, And Vehicles Will Occur. Tree Damage Is Likely. Locations Impacted Include… Eden… Reidsville… Wentworth… Bethel… And Providence. Tornado… Observed Hail… 1.00in”


5:25PM: Debris signature near Greensboro a few minutes ago.




5:25PM: Observed Tornado Near Greensboro


5:11PM: Tornado Warning for Guilford County:

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
509 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for…
Central Guilford County in central North Carolina…

* Until 530 PM EDT

* At 509 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Greensboro, moving north at 55 mph.


SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include…
Greensboro, McLeansville, Lake Townsend Marina, Lake Townsend, Lake
Jeanette Marina, Monticello, Lake Brandt, Haw River State Park and
Forest Oaks.


TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.


3:40PM: Conditions remain quiet at this hour. As mentioned previously, the main action will occur later tonight when the line of storms associated with the cold front passes through the region. The main threats include: Strong damaging winds and flash flooding. The threat of tornadoes is low at this time but cannot be ruled out 100%.


Tornado Watch For Central North Carolina:

Tornado Watch Number 53
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central North Carolina
Eastern South Carolina
Southern Virginia

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include…
A few tornadoes likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY…Bands of well-organized storms will continue to steadily
progress east/northeastward within a highly sheared environment.
Tornadoes and damaging winds will remain a threat into this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Lynchburg
VA to 30 miles south southwest of Florence SC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update


REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.



AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22040.



2:50PM: Winds gust starting to pickup as winds aloft begin to mix down to the surface.


2:35PM: From SPC regarding Mesoscale Discussion #0268.

MD 268 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0268
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

   Areas affected...portions of south-central VA...central NC into
   north-central SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 151829Z - 152000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will spread eastward into the NC/VA
   Piedmont vicinity this afternoon and evening. A threat of damaging
   wind and a few tornadoes will ensue as a line of convection across
   western NC/VA continues to track east-northeast across the region. A
   new tornado watch will be needed downstream of WW 52.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating beneath thin cirrus has allowed
   temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s across the NC/VA
   Piedmont vicinity this afternoon. This is a bit warmer than forecast
   guidance previously has suggested, resulting in modestly improved
   thermodynamic profiles. Regardless, surface based instability is
   expected to top out around 1000-1500 J/kg at most across the region.
   While midlevel lapse rates will remain lackluster, warmer boundary
   layer temperatures should result in steeper surface to 3km lapse
   rates. 18z Mesoanalysis indicates low level lapse rates have
   increased to around 7 deg C/km. Furthermore, low level kinematics
   should continue to improve as the surface low continues to push
   east-northeast across the central Appalachians. On the whole, this
   will maintain severe threat into the Piedmont vicinity as QLCS
   across western VA/NC/SC continues northeastward. Strong deep layer
   shear with fast storm motion and previously mentioned steepened low
   level lapse rates will support damaging potential. Furthermore,
   backed low level flow and 0-1km SRH greater than 200 m2/s2 will
   support rotation in embedded supercell structures/mesovorticies
   along the line. 

   More recently, showers have developed across the warm sector ahead
   of the eastward advancing line. At this time these showers remain
   rather shallow and weak. While some intensification is possible as
   forcing for ascent increases, severe potential remains uncertain and
   the main focus for severe threat remains the eastward advancing

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/15/2018


2:35PM: Sun starting to break through the clouds over ENC after some convective showers moved through. Should aid in destabilizing the atmosphere.

2:30PM: HRRR show the line of thunderstorms reaching the western sections of ENC by midnight.

2:15 PM: Already seeing scattered showers ahead of the approaching cold front. The atmosphere will continue to destabilize over the next few hours and we could see some of the convective cells develop.


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