Live Updates
10:40PM: This will be my last live update of the evening. Advisories will continue to display on the site as usual.
10:30PM: New severe thunderstorm warning issued.
9:55PM: A couple of severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued in the last couple of minutes.
9:40PM: Tornado Warning for Warren and Vance Counties will be allowed to be expire.
9:35PM: Tornado Watch for portions of ENC.
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 55 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 935 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018 TORNADO WATCH 55 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NCC013-015-031-041-049-061-065-073-079-083-091-103-107-117-127- 131-133-137-143-147-187-191-195-160700- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0055.180416T0135Z-180416T0700Z/ NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PERQUIMANS PITT WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON $$
9:20PM: Tornado Warning for Warren and Vance Counties.
9:15PM: Concerning Mesoscale Discussion 275:
| Mesoscale Discussion 275 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018 Areas affected...Eastern NC...Southeast VA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 160107Z - 160230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored for a Tornado Watch downstream of the ongoing convective line. DISCUSSION...Current storm tracks suggest the ongoing convective line will reach the edge of Tornado Watch 53 or 54 around 0230Z. The southern portion of the line has shown a modest increase in forward progression so there is some potential that the increased forward speed brings the line to the edge of Tornado Watch 53 before 0230Z. Continued theta-e advection is expected to offset nocturnal stabilization somewhat with much of the region remaining weakly unstable. At the same time, low-level wind fields will strengthen, enlarging hodographs and creating a kinematic environment that is very supportive of low-level rotation. There is some potential for the convective line to be outflow dominant by the time it reaches eastern NC/southeast VA but overall convective evolution remains uncertain. However, given the favorable kinematic fields, trends will be monitored closely and a downstream tornado watch will likely be needed soon. ..Mosier/Hart.. 04/16/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... |
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8:35PM: The last Severe Thunderstorm warning had expired at 7:45 and it has taken 50 minutes for a new one to be issued.
8:20PM: Let’s add some additional counties to the tornado watch: Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, and Pender Counties until 11:00PM
8:10PM: Flash Flood Warning Issued for Scotland and Hoke Counties.
6:45PM: Tornado Watch has been issued for Edgecombe, Franklin, Halifax, Johnston, Nash, Sampson, Warren, Wayne, and Wilson Counties.
6:00PM: Warnings will be separate posts starting now. I will still update here for other comments.
5:50PM: Concerning MD #272
| Mesoscale Discussion 272 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018 Areas affected...Central/Western VA....Central NC....Eastern SC Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...53... Valid 152145Z - 152315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52, 53 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will continue for the next few hours across Tornado Watches 52 and 53. DISCUSSION...A strong convective line continues to progress northeastward at 35-40 kt across western VA, central NC, and northeast SC. Recent KRAX radar imagery showed a strong rotation signature accompanied by a minimum in the correlation coefficient moving across Guilford county. These embedded circulations will remain possible for the next few hours, particularly with any storm mergers than occur with more discrete storms developing ahead of the line. Wind fields across the region remain quite strong (0-6 km bulk shear over 55 kt per recent KRAX VAD data). Mesoanalysis suggests higher shear farther north across VA. Low-level helicity (over 340 m2 per s2 from 0-3 km from KRAX) is also supportive of updraft rotation. Expectation is for the convective line to continue northeastward from the next several hours with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes possible. Southern portions of this line will likely approach the edge of the watch within the next hour and extension in area may be needed across portions of far southeast NC and adjacent far northeast NC. Farther south (into SC), a second, weaker convective line continues to move northeastward across CHS's CWA. Some modest strengthening of the updrafts within this line has been noted over the past hour. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible over the remaining portions of Tornado Watch 52. ..Mosier.. 04/15/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... |
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5:30PM “A Confirmed Tornado Was Located Near Monroeton, Moving Northeast At 40 MPH. Hazard… Damaging Tornado And Quarter Size Hail. Source… Emergency Management Confirmed A Tornado In Guilford County, North Carolina. Impact… Flying Debris Will Be Dangerous To Those Caught Without Shelter. Mobile Homes Will Be Damaged Or Destroyed. Damage To Roofs, Windows, And Vehicles Will Occur. Tree Damage Is Likely. Locations Impacted Include… Eden… Reidsville… Wentworth… Bethel… And Providence. Tornado… Observed Hail… 1.00in”
5:25PM: Debris signature near Greensboro a few minutes ago.
5:25PM: Observed Tornado Near Greensboro
5:11PM: Tornado Warning for Guilford County:
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
509 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a
* Tornado Warning for…
Central Guilford County in central North Carolina…
* Until 530 PM EDT
* At 509 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Greensboro, moving north at 55 mph.
HAZARD…Tornado.
SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* Locations impacted include…
Greensboro, McLeansville, Lake Townsend Marina, Lake Townsend, Lake
Jeanette Marina, Monticello, Lake Brandt, Haw River State Park and
Forest Oaks.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
3:40PM: Conditions remain quiet at this hour. As mentioned previously, the main action will occur later tonight when the line of storms associated with the cold front passes through the region. The main threats include: Strong damaging winds and flash flooding. The threat of tornadoes is low at this time but cannot be ruled out 100%.
3:00PM:
Tornado Watch For Central North Carolina:
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 53
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central North Carolina
Eastern South Carolina
Southern Virginia
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include…
A few tornadoes likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY…Bands of well-organized storms will continue to steadily
progress east/northeastward within a highly sheared environment.
Tornadoes and damaging winds will remain a threat into this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Lynchburg
VA to 30 miles south southwest of Florence SC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
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OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 51…WW 52…
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22040.
…Guyer
2:50PM: Winds gust starting to pickup as winds aloft begin to mix down to the surface.
2:35PM: From SPC regarding Mesoscale Discussion #0268.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018 Areas affected...portions of south-central VA...central NC into north-central SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151829Z - 152000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will spread eastward into the NC/VA Piedmont vicinity this afternoon and evening. A threat of damaging wind and a few tornadoes will ensue as a line of convection across western NC/VA continues to track east-northeast across the region. A new tornado watch will be needed downstream of WW 52. DISCUSSION...Strong heating beneath thin cirrus has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s across the NC/VA Piedmont vicinity this afternoon. This is a bit warmer than forecast guidance previously has suggested, resulting in modestly improved thermodynamic profiles. Regardless, surface based instability is expected to top out around 1000-1500 J/kg at most across the region. While midlevel lapse rates will remain lackluster, warmer boundary layer temperatures should result in steeper surface to 3km lapse rates. 18z Mesoanalysis indicates low level lapse rates have increased to around 7 deg C/km. Furthermore, low level kinematics should continue to improve as the surface low continues to push east-northeast across the central Appalachians. On the whole, this will maintain severe threat into the Piedmont vicinity as QLCS across western VA/NC/SC continues northeastward. Strong deep layer shear with fast storm motion and previously mentioned steepened low level lapse rates will support damaging potential. Furthermore, backed low level flow and 0-1km SRH greater than 200 m2/s2 will support rotation in embedded supercell structures/mesovorticies along the line. More recently, showers have developed across the warm sector ahead of the eastward advancing line. At this time these showers remain rather shallow and weak. While some intensification is possible as forcing for ascent increases, severe potential remains uncertain and the main focus for severe threat remains the eastward advancing line. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/15/2018 |
2:35PM: Sun starting to break through the clouds over ENC after some convective showers moved through. Should aid in destabilizing the atmosphere.
2:30PM: HRRR show the line of thunderstorms reaching the western sections of ENC by midnight.
2:15 PM: Already seeing scattered showers ahead of the approaching cold front. The atmosphere will continue to destabilize over the next few hours and we could see some of the convective cells develop.
