SPC – Severe Weather Potential

Written by on December 23, 2015 in Severe Weather
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/COASTAL NC AND SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231921Z - 232045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION
   MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL SC...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR ACROSS THE MCD AREA...PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE IS PROMOTING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE VWP
   FROM KCAE SHOWS VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SWLY WINDS FROM
   1-9 KM...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ESTIMATED BY LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS
   FROM 125-225 M2/S2. THIS COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
   STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
   ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE LINEAR STORM MODE
   THUS FAR...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE ALSO
   POSSIBLE.

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