MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/COASTAL NC AND SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231921Z - 232045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL SC...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR ACROSS THE MCD AREA...PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROMOTING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE VWP
FROM KCAE SHOWS VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SWLY WINDS FROM
1-9 KM...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ESTIMATED BY LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS
FROM 125-225 M2/S2. THIS COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE LINEAR STORM MODE
THUS FAR...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE ALSO
POSSIBLE.