Potential Tropical/Subtropical Storm Developing off the Florida Coast
A system that is starting to look like it is getting better organized and appears to be on its way to becoming the first tropical/subtropical storm of 2020 in the Atlantic Basin. If it does become a tropical/subtropical storm, its name would be Arthur. This one had been in the models for quite some time now and over the past 24-48 hours, it’s forecast track has shifted westward which could bring it very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Monday. This close passage will increase the risk of strong rip currents along the beaches.
Rainfall chances inland will depend on the future track of the storm. A closer track brings moisture inland while a track further offshore will see moisture confined to the coastal sections. Rainfall amounts won’t be significant at this time with coastal sections expected to see the greatest amounts.
After the storm passes an upper-level low will drift southeast from Illinois to the western North Carolina increasing the chances of rain in our area. This upper-level low is forecast to sit over the area for the remainder of the work week before the low lifts from the area.
More information on this forecast later as more information develops.
Below is the Tropical Weather Outlook at the time of this post:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of Florida. 1. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located just off the coast of east-central Florida has become better defined today. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually organize. If these trends continues, advisories will likely be initiated on this system as a tropical or subtropical depression later today. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic near or east of the Carolinas. The system will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rains across portions of east-central Florida through tonight. Interests near the North Carolina coast should closely monitor the progress of this system, as it could produce gusty winds and heavy rains there on Monday, and a tropical storm watch will likely be issued for that area later today. In addition, hazardous marine conditions will spread northward during the next few days, likely causing dangerous surf and rip currents along much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the U.S. See products from your local National Weather Service office for more details. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this evening. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if needed. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.