Watching For Severe Potential In ENC

Written by on April 20, 2015 in Severe Weather

Some clouds still persist late morning with some sun breaking through in some parts. Temperatures look to be on track with low to mid 80s forecast across the area.

As for this afternoon and this evening, chances for severe weather are decreasing as frontal passage timing becomes a little more clear. Instability will be present this afternoon especially with the sun shining through along with increasing moisture with southwesterly flow. The cold front to the west is forecast to pass through the area tonight. Recent model runs indicating a later frontal passage which puts it well after max heating which will limit convection across the area at the time of the frontal passage.

With instability present during the afternoon, isolated thunderstorms could pop up along the sea breeze boundary or other outflow boundaries with heavy rain, strong winds, and some hail.

Areas that have the best potential to see severe storms this evening will be the far western sections (west of I95) and far northern sections along the state line. Strong winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado could be possible in these areas.

I will keep monitoring the situation and update as needed.

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