Severe Weather Potential Sunday
Showers will continue through the evening hours as a warm front moves northward over the area. Rain chances are expected to diminish with the passing of a mid-level shortwave later tonight and with mainly dry conditions persisting into early Sunday.
By late morning and into the early afternoon, models indicate that a line of showers and some embedded thunderstorms moving east over the area. Later in the afternoon, we could see some isolated convection developing near the warm front which will be moving slowly (or nearly stationary for a couple of hours) and slowly move northward through the late afternoon into early evening hours.
A cold front associated with the upper-level trough will push through the area Sunday night. A line of thunderstorms is expected to form along this front and push east during the overnight hours. With much of ENC being in the warm sector overnight, this line will have the potential to produce damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
The Storm Prediction Center has most of ENC in the slight risk category for severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night. I encourage everyone to make sure you have access to a NOAA weather radio or other reliable source for any severe watches/warnings issued in your area (this website and/or associated Twitter account is not included as a source).
The severe weather threat should be over with the passage of the cold front early Monday morning. I have left rain in the forecast for Monday as we could see some moisture wrap around the back side of the passing surface low.
The information provided in this post is primarily an opinion of my own and not necessarily the opinion/forecast of the NWS. Always consult with official sources such as the NWS and other local agencies when making life or death decisions.