Update Wednesday 8:10am EST: Severe weather outlook from the SPC has gone from enhanced risk from yesterday to moderate risk today. The chance for damaging winds has increased to 30% over the entire area and the chance for tornadoes to 15% for areas north of Jacksonville northward to SE Virginia. Some of these tornadoes could be strong. It is advised that everyone in ENC pay close attention to any watches/warnings that will be issued this afternoon. This is a high risk situation and be prepared to take action if any of these storms is near you.
Severe weather will occur over much of ENC Wednesday as the next system moves into the area.
A stationary front over the coastal sections of ENC will retreat north as a warm front during the overnight hours leading to increasing temperatures and moisture.
As the day progresses, the atmosphere will destabilize as CAPE values begin to approach 1,000 J/kg or greater. Strong winds aloft will setup the potential for damaging straight-line winds with any storms that do impact the area. Helicity values greater than 400 favor some supercell development which could lead to isolated tornadoes.
The evolution of severe weather tomorrow will start by early afternoon as scattered storms develop well ahead of the cold front approaching from the west. These cells could become severe with the potential for strong winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. The second round of storms will occur right before frontal passage which should remain linear with the risk of strong, damaging winds.
People in this area need to pay special attention to any alerts, watches, and warnings from the National Weather Service on Wednesday. The risk of severe weather is likely.
This is not an official forecast from the National Weather Service or in anyway associated with the NWS. For all current severe weather alerts, visit weather.gov.