Rain continues for much of ENC as a surface cold front begins to approach the region late this afternoon. Light rain will hang around until the frontal passage later tonight. The front is forecast to stall just off the coast with the slight chance of showers along the coast Tuesday.
Shortwave energy will approach the stalled frontal boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico resulting in a developing surface low just off the Florida Panhandle. This surface low will then track along the stalled frontal boundary and up the east coast on Wednesday. As the surface low approaches ENC, onshore flow will set the stage for very heavy precipitation.
Despite cooling from the frontal passage the day before, there will not be enough cold air at the surface for any precipitation to be frozen over ENC. While there are some differences with timing and location of the surface low, all point to a heavy precipitation event over ENC as a result of strong isentropic lift. Right now the forecast thinking is for areas close to the coast, rainfall totals from this system could be upwards to 1-3″ while areas further away from the coast (~west of I-95) will see rainfall totals of 0.5″-1″. The heavy band of precipitation could move west or east of it’s current forecast track which would change the forecast totals so additional time for a more precise forecast will be needed.
The surface low will quickly exit the region Wednesday afternoon and rain should end from southwest to northeast before Wednesday night.
Thursday appears to be dry and cool with highs only expected to reach the low 50s.
Note: Opinions about this forecast are entirely my own and not of any organization both public or private.