Active Start To The Week

Written by on February 14, 2016 in Winter Weather

Our next chance of wintry precipitation will occur Monday morning as low pressure over OK/TX begins working its way eastward. High pressure move northward along the mid-Atlantic coast today and overnight which will allow weak cold air advection which will setup conditions suitable for wintry precipitation.

As strong shortwave energy dives into the Gulf States on Monday inducing surface cyclogenesis. A warm front will develop along the Carolina Coast and retreat northwestward as the upper level trough moves eastward. Prior to the frontal passage, moisture could overrun the area and fall as some type of frozen precipitation (most likely snow north of Hwy 264 and a mix of snow and sleet south). Little to no accumulation is expected over ENC. High pressure will retreat northeastward away from the Continental United States Monday morning. As this occurs, a southwesterly low level jet will setup over the area transporting warmer air aloft with frozen precipitation transitioning to liquid from south to north during the day on Monday. Surface temperatures will begin to rise throughout the day as low level flow becomes more southwesterly changing all precipitation to rain by mid afternoon and remain as rain through the remainder of the event.

monday-morning

monday-evening

Late Monday night into early Tuesday, a surge of moisture ahead of the approaching cold front will created heavy rainfall across the area with most areas exceeding 1″ of rain. The rain should clear the area by Tuesday afternoon with temperatures dropping some Tuesday night.

Calm weather will dominate through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

Note: This forecast may or may not reflect the NWS’s official forecast for the area.

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