Quick Reminder About Long Range Forecast Models
Its that time of year again where you will see images of long range forecast models past off as actual forecasts. A few days ago, someone posted a week old 312 hour forecast for December 17, 2016. That’s right! On 12-12-16 a person posted forecast model initialized on 12-4-16 to show a forecast for 12-17-16 (312 hours out). This particular model show a major winter storm for ENC. This is so irresponsible and should be avoided.
I see this happening almost on a daily basis now and this is a great concern. There has been several conversations on how forecast via social media should be handled. I, myself, do use forecast models to illustrate some of my forecasts however, you will rarely see me post a forecast model where I don’t explain why I posted it in the first place. If a storm of any kind shows up outside of 192 hours, I never even mention it. It wasn’t until this past Tuesday when I started talking about the frozen precipitation chance on Saturday (I concluded there was very little chance).
There were a couple of graphics posted to Twitter a couple of days ago from the National Weather Service offices out of Kansas City, MO and Chicago, IL kind of explaining the complexity of how forecast models are interpreted.
