147 
WTPZ32 KNHC 232038
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Vance Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
300 PM CST Fri Oct 23 2026
 
...VANCE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 102.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Vance.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Vance was located
near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 102.3 West. Vance is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion toward the
north-northwest or northwest is expected to continue through the
weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is expected 
through tonight, and Vance is forecast to become a major hurricane. 
After that, slow weakening is forecast to start on Saturday night
and continue through Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this
weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232040
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Vance Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
300 PM CST Fri Oct 23 2026

Vance has become better organized since the last advisory with the 
formation of a well-defined eye inside the central dense overcast. 
Satellite intensity estimates have increased to the 83-104 kt 
range, and based on these data the initial intensity is increased 
to 90 kt. Although the central features of the hurricane are better 
defined, the outer banding seen earlier has become fragmented, and 
arc clouds that suggest the presence of dry air are seen southwest 
of the CDO.

The intensity forecast is a low confidence roller coaster ride. The 
eye of Vance is moving over a pool of water featuring both colder 
sea surface temperatures (near 27C) and reduced oceanic heat 
content. This should soon bring the current intensification to a 
halt, although the intensity forecast calls for Vance to become a 
major hurricane before that happens. The center will be near or over 
the cold pool through 48 h, and during this time southwesterly 
vertical shear should increase over the hurricane. This combination 
should cause weakening, and it is possible that Vance could weaken 
more than forecast during this period.  After 48 h, Vance should 
move north of the cold pool, and the official forecast at that time 
calls for some re-intensification, following the scenario shown by 
the HAFS models. By 96-120 h, an additional increase in shear and 
possible land interaction should cause the hurricane to weaken yet 
again.  As noted in the previous advisory, a track to the right of 
the forecast track will keep the center over the colder water for a 
longer time, while a track to the left would reduce how much time 
the center spends over the cold pool. 

After the westward jog seen earlier today, Vance has resumed a 
northwestward motion of 325/4 kt.  The hurricane is currently being 
steered by a weak mid-level ridge over eastern Mexico and the 
eastern Pacific, and later in the forecast period it will come under 
the influence of a large mid- to upper-level trough over the western 
United States as well as the adjacent portions of northern Mexico 
and the northeastern Pacific. While the dynamical models agree on 
the general synoptic pattern, the track forecast is complicated by 
the possibilities of how strong and vertically stacked Vance will 
be. A stronger and more vertically stacked storm, especially as 
depicted in the GFS, will likely move slowly toward the 
north-northwest and north during the forecast period. On the other 
hand, the UKMET and Canadian models forecast Vance to be weaker and 
shear apart vertically, with the low-level center being steered more 
to the northwest before eventually turning northward.  While the 
current structure makes such a shearing apart unlikely in the short 
term, it is possible that Vance could shear apart between 24-48 h if 
it weakens more than forecast, and at that point it could turn more 
northwestward.  The forecast track leans toward Vance staying 
vertically coupled, and it is in the best overall agreement with the 
Google Deepmind ensemble mean, the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and the 
Florida State Superensemble. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 11.2N 102.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 11.9N 102.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 12.9N 103.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 13.9N 103.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 14.9N 103.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 15.7N 103.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 16.1N 104.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 16.8N 104.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 232038
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 102.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 180SE  80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 102.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.9N 102.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.9N 103.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.9N 103.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.9N 103.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.7N 103.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.1N 104.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 104.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 102.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 232038
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026               
2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
15N 105W       34  X   1( 1)  19(20)  17(37)  10(47)   3(50)   1(51)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   2(15)   X(15)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   7(19)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  15(34)  11(45)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  18(25)  10(35)   4(39)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  11(17)   5(22)   4(26)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
10N 100W       34 59   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN