000
FXUS62 KRAH 280550
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 150 AM Wednesday...

1) While overcast skies are forecast today and Thursday morning, 
conditions will remain dry.

2) Forecast uncertainty remains high on next chance for measurable 
rainfall and amounts during the first week of November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 150 AM Wednesday... 

KEY MESSAGE 1... While overcast skies are forecast today and 
Thursday morning, conditions will remain dry.

An area of low clouds has developed across eastern North Carolina 
and the clouds will spread west overnight, reaching the Triad around 
sunrise. There could also be some patchy fog as well around sunrise. 
The clouds will slowly rise in height during the day, but no rain is 
in the forecast. These clouds will continue overnight and into 
Thursday, slowly eroding from east to west during the day. The 
clouds will keep today's highs a couple degrees cooler than 
yesterday, closer to normal for this time of year, and result in 
mild low temperatures tonight, generally in the 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast uncertainty remains high on next chance 
for measurable rainfall and amounts during the first week of 
November.

Model guidance continue to struggle with the forecast pattern 
evolution through the first week of November with two primary 
drivers in this uncertainty. The first is the moisture associated 
with Tropical Cyclone Vance as it lifts through southwest Mexico and 
into the Four Corners and Southern Plains region Fri before shifting 
eastward into the Southeast Sat into Sun and perhaps Carolinas Sun 
night into Mon. Locally over the Carolinas ahead of this influx of 
deep-layer moisture, a reinforcing dry cold front will provide 
renewed high pressure persisting over the Mid-Atlantic into the 
Carolinas this weekend and could provide a favorable setup for 
isentropic ascent and overrunning given adequate forcing/moisture in 
place. However, outside of the GFS and its ensemble suite, most 
guidance is shunting the better QPF signal farther south with only 
light accumulations in NC Sun night into Tues night.

The second and perhaps better signal may exist beyond the current 
forecast period as a strong mid/upper low shifts from the West Coast 
on Sun into the Central Plains into the mid-week timeframe. How and 
when this feature will develop is understandably uncertain as the 
driving features will not phase until this weekend. The general 
consensus among ensemble guidance highlights the Wed/Thurs-night 
window for increased rain chances, but details are muddy at this 
time.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
As of 125 AM Wednesday...

TAF period: Although all sites should begin with VFR conditions, 
LIFR ceilings have already been observed in eastern North Carolina, 
and this area of clouds should advect west overnight. By mid-
morning, LIFR ceilings are expected to have spread across all 
terminals, along with IFR visibilities, but ceilings should be 
dictating the flight categories. The LIFR restrictions should last 
the shortest amount of time at INT/GSO, with ceilings at all sites 
lifting to VFR by early afternoon. VFR ceilings will persist through 
the rest of the TAF period. Additional MVFR ceilings are expected to 
develop, but right now it appears likely that the next round of 
restrictions should hold off until at least 06Z. The wind will be 
out of the northeast, less than 5 kt to begin and eventually rising 
to 5-10 kt.

Outlook: MVFR ceilings appear likely at all terminals between 06Z-
18Z Thursday, with isolated IFR ceilings possible. After that, dry 
VFR conditions are forecast through Saturday.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/Swiggett
AVIATION...Green