Atlantic Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on January 26, 2026 at 3:37 PM 
000AXNT20 KNHC 261537TWDAT Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1815 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC....SPECIAL FEATURES...Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues tomove E-SE across the Gulf this morning, and extends from nearYankeetown, Florida southwestward to just west of Puerto DosBocas, Mexico along the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf. Strong to near gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the front. Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated that northerly gales were occurring offshore Tampico.Recent observations inland of Puerto Veracruz show fresh to strongsustained winds with gusts to near gale force, This is indicativeof sustained gales just offshore. These gale conditions are forecast to continue offshore Tampico through this morning and offshore Veracruz through late Mon night. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin tonight through Mon evening. Seas are expected to quickly build across the Gulf region through Mon reaching 16 or 17 ft across SW portions. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep up with thelatest forecasts.Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast ofGuinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm either side of the ITCZbetween 17W and 24W.GULF OF AMERICA...Please read the Special Features section for details on the GaleWarning in effect for the western and SW Gulf.A cold front extends from near Yankeetown, Florida southwestward to just west of Puerto Dos Bocas, Mexico along the Bay of Campechein the southwest Gulf. Modified arctic air is spilling across theentire basin behind the front to produce a blanket of cold air stratus behind the front. Numerous showers are likely along theleading edge of the colder air, but no significant thunderstormactivity is evident at this time. Wave heights are up to 13 ft atbuoy 42055 in the west-central Gulf, hinting of wave heights to ashigh as 15 ft farther west in the area of gale force winds closerto the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz. Ahead of thefront, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas to 6 ft prevail.For the forecast, gale conditions are forecast to prevail offshore Veracruz through late tonight. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin through this evening with very rough seas expected to quickly build across the basin today and tonight.Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. The high will shift southeastward Thu as low pressure develops in the far western Gulfalong the next cold frontal boundary. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening. Another round of gale force winds near Veracruz will likely begin late Fri night in the wake of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally fair conditions prevail across the Caribbean thismorning, except for a few showers moving quickly in the generally freshtrade wind flow across the eastern and central parts of the basin, south of the dominant subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Strong winds may be pulsing off the coast of Colombiabetween Cartagena and Barranquilla, where seas to 9 ft arealikely. Seas are likely 5-8 ft elsewhere across the eastern andcentral Caribbean. An overnight altimeter satellite pass confirmedlarge combined seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands. This is due to along fetch of fresh trade winds supporting 8 to 9 ft NE to E swell. Gentle breezes and2 to 5 ft are evident elsewhere across the northwest Caribbean and the far southwest part of basin. For the forecast, high pressure E of Bermuda will slide SE and weaken through Tue and maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean basin, supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swellover the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside, with seas lingering near 8 ft through Wed afternoon. A cold front will enterthe NW Caribbean late tonight and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America. Mainly moderate winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN...A ridge extends from 1027 mb high is centered east of Bermuda near 33N53W southwestward across the northwest Bahamas, south Florida and through the Straits of Florida. The ridge is shiftingeast ahead of a strong cold front that is just starting to move off the coasts of Georgia and northeast Florida. Fresh to strongSW winds and rough seas are ahead of the front between northeastFlorida and Bermuda north of 29N. Farther east, a cold front justpassing the Azores extends to 31N35W to 28N50W, then is stationarysouth of the high pressure to near 31N65W. Moderate to fresh tradewinds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted across the deep tropics southof the ridge, specifically south of 22N, with gentle to moderatebreezes and 5 to 8 ft seas noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds over the NW forecast waters along with rough seas to 10 ft will continue through late morning as the strong cold front continues to move offshore northeast Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected W of the front this afternoon through Tue afternoon. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamasand S Florida this evening, from near 31N57W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary willbegin to dissipate on Thu as another cold front moves out across the western forecast waters, reaching from near 29N55W to the central Bahamas Fri morning, before stalling N of 24N Fri night.Elsewhere. a broad ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near 35N54W southwestward to east of the Bahamas. A stationary front extends across the NE zones from 28N55W to 31N64W supporting gentle to moderate winds.$$Christensen