Atlantic Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on October 14, 2025 at 10:50 PM 
105 AXNT20 KNHC 142250TWDAT Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL0015 UTC Wed Oct 15 2025Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC....SPECIAL FEATURES...Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 18.7N 45.5W at 14/2100UTC or 1240 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 10 kt.Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustainedwind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimatedto be around 20 ft (6.0 m). Scattered to numerous moderateconvection is noted in clusters within 330 nm in the SE quadrantand 60 nm in the NW quadrant of Lorenzo. Lorenzo is moving towardthe northwest. A turn to the north is expected tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wed and Thu. Continued weakening is expected, and Lorenzo is forecast to dissipate within a few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details....TROPICAL WAVES...An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed near 24W, from16N southward across portions of the western Cabo Verde Islands,moving W at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strongconvection is noted on conventional satellite imagery from 04N to16N between 20W and 30W.Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34.5W, from 14Nsouthward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09.5N between 32W and 36.5W.A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, from 17N southwardto well N of Guyana, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered to numerousmoderate convection is noted from 11N to 15.5N between 55W and58W....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africanear 12N16W southwestward to 10N18W to 10N26W to 07N32W. The ITCZextends from 07N35W to 11N45.5W to the S of Tropical StormLorenzo. Other than the convection described above, scatteredmoderate is noted from  02.5N to 07.5N between 08W and 19W....GULF OF AMERICA...Fair weather prevails over the Gulf basin today as weak high pressure over the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys extends into the north-central basin in the wake of a cold front that moved SE ofthe basin. Winds are moderate or weaker across the basin. Seas are1-3 ft N of 26N, and 2-4 ft S of 26N, except locally higherthrough and near the Yucatan Channel.For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf region through the forecast period, resulting in gentle to moderate windsand slight to moderate seas over much of the basin. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern and central Gulf Thu night through Sat night as the pressure gradient tightenssome across the area. Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the week as high pressure over the SE United States shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, a cold front isexpected to reach the NW Gulf waters on Sun....CARIBBEAN SEA...Deep layered troughing across the NW Caribbean is combining with in inverted low level trough just NE of the border of Honduras andNicaragua to support widely scattered moderate convection from 17Nnorthward to the W of Jamaica. Some scattered showers andthunderstorms are near the NW coast of Colombia with low pressure near 11N76W and the monsoon trough westward across Central Americaand into the Eastern Pacific Ocean. A weak pressure pattern is across the basin with a cold front in the SW N Atlantic to westernCuba disrupting high pressure off to the SE, to the N of the Greater Antilles near 24N65W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the basin outside of any convection. Seas are 2-4 ft E of 77W, andmainly 1-2 ft W of 77W, except 3-5 ft near and through the Yucatan Channel.For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the NW Caribbean through Thu before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front. Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas overmuch of the basin through the work week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is E of area near 18.7N 45.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb....ATLANTIC OCEAN...Please refer to the Special Features section for details onTropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.A complex extratropical gale-force system well offshore the U.S.Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas extends a cold front through 31N67W toacross portions of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida towestern Cuba, with a trailing front approximately 90 nm behind.Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible within240 nm SE of the leading front per convectional satellite imagery. Moderate to fresh winds are N of 27N between 62W and 80W near thefronts with seas of 5-8 ft in associated northerly swell. A 1006mb low is well to the E near 29N51W with a trough extending SW ofthe low to 23N60W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is foundwithin 300 nm in the SE semicircle. Fresh to strong winds are N of24N to the E of the trough and low to 42W. A stationary front associated with the complex system mentioned above extends well away from the parent lows through 1004 mb low pressure at 31N45W to 29N35W then off to the NE through 31N31W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are from 26N to 31N to the E of 44W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are from 25N to29N to the W of 24W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker acrossthe remainder of the Tropical Atlantic waters away from Lorenzoand under weak ridging N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas of5-8 ft, highest near the convection with the low, are found from25N to 31N between 29W and 58W. Seas of 3-4 ft are found under aridge from the Canary Islands SW to near 20N29W anchored by a 1016mb high near 23N26W. Seas of 4-7 ft in mixed swells are across the remainder of the waters.For the forecast, a cold front extending from 31N70W to SE Florida will move SE across the forecast waters through Thu beforedissipating. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Wed morning, and from 31N59W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front across the waters N of 27N by tonight. These marine conditions will shift eastward with the front throughlate in the week. A reinforcing front will follow the main front,and is forecast to extend from 31N60W to the Straits of Florida by Fri morning. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is E of area near 18.7N 45.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.$$Lewitsky