000AXPZ20 KNHC 190920TWDEP Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1005 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, andfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The followinginformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,radar, and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through0920 UTC....SPECIAL FEATURES...Western East Pacific: Low pressure, Invest EP98, is centered near12N119W with a pressure of 1009 mb. This feature is part of a rather broad area of cyclonic circulation. Satellite imagery exhibits scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 04N to 17N between 118W and 135W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the western East Pacific. The low has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.South of Southwestern Mexico: A tropical wave, Invest EP99, has its axis extending from near 18N108W to 04N107W, with low pressure of 1009 mb, near 09N106W. This feature is part of a broad area low pressure that is located about 700 nautical miles south- southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Satellite imagery depicts scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 05N to 15N between 99W and 112W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and a high chance of development within the next 7 days.Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details on these Invests....TROPICAL WAVES...A tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea with axis near 82W extends southward across W Panama and its offshore waters. It ismoving westward near 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strongconvection is from 05N to 10N between 80W and 89W....INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 09N106W to 12N120W to 15N136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 16N between 90W and 100W, and from 07Nto 20N between 130W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...The pressure gradient between a ridge over eastern Mexico and the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon is supporting fresh N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas with these windsare 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers are over the offshore waters between Oaxaca and Guerrero due to Invest EP99 and the monsoon south of the region. The gradient related to high pressure west of the Baja California offshores and low pressure along western Mexico is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec becoming moderate N to NE winds this afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds offshore Baja California willdiminish this afternoon. Northwest winds over these waters are expected to briefly reach fresh speeds again Mon night into Tue.Otherwise, the environmental conditions of Invest EP99, near 09N106W, are conducive for development and a tropical depressionis expected to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system is forecast to bring fresh to near gale-force winds and moderate to rough seas to the Michoacan and Jalisco offshores tonight into Wed night....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Moderate NE to E winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo extendingdownstream to near 88W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere, except for strong winds likely ongoing across the W Panama and Costa Rica offshores due to strong convective activityassociated with a tropical wave. Seas over the offshore waters are slight to moderate in long-period southwest swell.For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse inPapagayo through early Sun. Moderate winds and seas will prevailelsewhere....REMAINDER OF THE AREA...The remnant 1008 mb low of former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is located near 16N138W. A tight gradient between the low and high pressure of 1026 mb to its north is bringing fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the waters from 16N to 26N west of 121W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within this area of winds. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 07N to 20N between 130W and 138W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker for the most part and seas are of moderate state, except for moderate to fresh winds in the vicinity of Invest EP99. For the forecast, see the Special Features section. Otherwise, environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of Former TD 15-E next week as it moves westward to west- southwestward, and a tropical depression could form well to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle to latter part of next week.$$Ramos
