Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Meteorological analysis of the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf region from the National Hurricane Center.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC.
Special Features
Significant Swell N of Bahamas: A tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure system over New England and a stationary front extending from SE of Bermuda to a 1011 mb low in the NW Bahamas supports fresh to near gale-force NE winds and rough to very rough seas N of the front and W of the low. Peak seas are near 17 ft N of the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring N of the front and S of the front between 65W and 72W. Strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas will persist N of 28N and W of 65W through Thu night as the low pressure moves southwestward and the front weakens. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas.
Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
Monsoon Trough/itcz
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 11N20W. The ITCZ extends from 11N20W to 08N37W and to 08N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 12N and between 22W and 53W.
Gulf Of America
High pressure over New England extends a ridge across the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pres over the Bahamas is supporting moderate to locally strong NE winds E of 90W. Moderate to locally rough seas are over these waters. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are found west of 90W.
For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the E Gulf into late this week. Winds and seas will gradually diminish into Sat as the ridge slides eastward. Looking ahead, another robust high pressure system will reach New England late this weekend and early next week allowing winds and seas to increase in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period.
Caribbean Sea
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to affect the central Caribbean waters, extending from northern Colombia to E Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere. A weak pressure gradient allows for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, a surface trough along 80W will drift westward and weaken over the next couple of days. Ample tropical moisture and upper-level divergence support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central Caribbean, especially over the Dominican Republic. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds in the E Caribbean will continue over the next few days, gradually extending westward through the week and into the upcoming weekend.
Atlantic Ocean
Please see the Special Features section above for information on significant swell causing very rough seas north of the Bahamas.
E of 70W, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, looking ahead, weak low pressure will develop southwest of Bermuda by Fri, then lift northeastward and reinforce the frontal boundary over the waters between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas to 10 ft N of the front through early next week.
Delgado