Tropical Storm Matthew Has Formed

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Invest 97L has finally developed a closed circulation making this Tropical Storm Matthew. As mentioned previously, with the tropical storm windspeeds already observed the day prior, it would skip tropical depression status and straight to a tropical storm.

Matthew is currently moving through the Windward Islands and will be moving into a more favorable environment for strengthening. There are a few obstacles in its way that I mentioned this morning but this would only slow down the process some. Once it is free and clear of the South American coast it has the potential to rapidly form into a Hurricane possibly a category 2 before its turn to the north.

This brings us to the dilemma of forecasting its track beyond day 3. As I pointed out this morning there are a couple of factors that will come into play. Matthew is still under the southern portion of the Atlantic ridge. During this time the storm will be moving nearly due west which has very good agreement with the models. By this weekend, the ridge will begin to break down with the presence and a cut off trough over the eastern US. Once Matthew reaches this weakness in the trough, it will pivot quickly to the north or north-northwest and begin to accelerate and strengthen during this process. The question that we don’t have the answer to yet is when and where this system begins this turn.

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The precise time and location of this turn will have significant impacts on the future forecast. Up to this point, the forecast models weren’t having a certain center of circulation making it difficult in determining how to handle the storm long-term. With an exact center of circulation, it will provide the models with more useful information and hope that we can bring down the uncertainty levels of the past few days.

Right now, without any new data, there exist a couple of possibilities with this system. First, a situation where the trough is farther to the west, weaker, or not as far south could result in a slower turn to the north which would take the storm over western Cuba and potentially into the Florida Peninsula as a hurricane. Second, if the models have the trough more to the east of the first situation, the turn would be sooner which would bring the storm over Jamaica and eastern Cuba. This would then travel up the east coast just offshore with a potential landfall somewhere along the east coast. Where it makes landfall will depend on the strengthen of the trough to the west and the blocking high to the north. A strong blocking high and a weak trough would bring the storm inland between North Carolina and Rhode Island. At this point the hurricane would probably be a category 2 or 3 by this time if the forecast intensity verifies. Last, and the one the models seem to be leaning towards this afternoon is a early northward turn of the storm bringing it close to Haiti and through the Bahamas and keeping it a few hundred miles offshore.

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It is important to note the models will change with time. This morning’s GFS run had the hurricane making landfall in ENC. This afternoon, it is staying 100-200 miles offshore. I emphasize that any forecast outside of day 3 should be taken with a grain of salt. Still after the 12Z runs today, this could affect anyone from Florida all the way up to the northeast coast.

Now is the time to prepare and pay close attention to updates to the current weather situation. Monitor the NHC, NWS, and local authorities for information regarding this tropical storm.

I will make another update later this evening with any new updates.

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