Tropical Depression Eight
Tropical Depression Eight has developed a few hundred miles off the ENC coast with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph and is moving to the west at 9 mph. That movement is forecast to turn more towards the west-northwest and then northwest over the next two days. This will bring the center closer to the ENC coast by Tuesday afternoon. The NHC has forecast TD Eight to become a tropical storm during this time with winds around 40 mph.
As of Sunday afternoon, TD Eight remains in mostly dry air and has been struggling with maintaining convection near its center. This is a combination of 25-30 kt shear over the system and very dry air around the center and eastern side. The far west side of the storm is the only side with any convection at this time. The lack of convection at the center will mean TD Eight will not intensify in its current environment and that doesn’t appear likely to change over the next couple of days even though it is over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.
By Wednesday, an approaching upper level trough will begin steering the TD to the northeast and accelerate away from the area. Some tropical storm watches/warning/advisories are still possible from the NHC as the system approaches.
The main threat from this storm will primarily heavy rains over the coastal sections of ENC. The strong winds should remain offshore with this track though any change in track could mean the winds could go inland.
As for the future of TD Nine that has just finally formed from the long-lived Invest 99L, is still uncertain at this time. Right now it is currently southwest of Florida and expected strengthen somewhat as it travels into the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC forecast currently calls for TD Nine to cross over the northern Florida Peninsula and off Northeast Florida into the Atlantic. At this time it be over the Gulf Stream as it travels along the SE coast. Too early to pinpoint an exact track as the forecast has been very difficult thus far and I don’t think that will change anytime soon.