Rivers Continue To Lower Across ENC
River levels continue to drop Sunday with some rivers falling below flood stage or nearing flood stage within the next day or two. Fortunately, heavy rain is not expected for the near future.
At the time of this post, high pressure was dominating the east coast while the west coast deals with a stormy weather from the remainder of a typhoon several days ago.
An upper trough will get cutoff from the jet over the Bahamas and will meander south of a ridge building eastward off the North Carolina coast.
The ridge at that time will help usher in some warmer temperatures to start the week bringing highs near 80s through Thursday.
On Thursday a trough will approach the eastern US which will also begin to lift the upper level low over the Bahamas and begin to lift it north. The upper level low will develop a surface low during its time over the Bahamas. The placement of the low at that time is tricky and could result in differences in future tracks of this low however, it doesn’t appear the impacts will be much which ever track it takes.
The NHC has given this area only a 30% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days. The trough is forecast to lift this northward later this week and should keep it away from the east coast.
The impacts of the upcoming trough will depend on the available moisture as it reaches our area. The last couple of runs of the GFS has show light precipitation amounts over ENC while the Euro towards an even drier event. There is some uncertainty with the dynamics of the trough’s passage.
A stronger trough could lead to a increased chance of rain over the area. A weaker trough reduces chances of rain. If it were to rain it would be light and would not impact river levels at all.
There is a chance of rain by the end of next week with seasonal temperatures throughout the forecast period.
Hurricane Nicole continues to race northward over the extreme north Atlantic and does not pose a threat to North America.
There isn’t other areas of interest in the Atlantic Ocean over the next 48 hours.
That is all for today and I hope everyone has a good start of the week.