Quick Update On 97L

capture

I wanted to do a quick morning update before I became unavailable for the rest of the morning.

This morning 97L is in the same shape that it was last night. Convection is still mainly north an west of the center part of the storm. It is still experiencing strong wind shear from and upper level trough situated over the Caribbean. This explains why the convection is situated where it is. You also have a low level circulation decoupled from a mid-level circulation with this system. Ideally for a healthy system you want to have the circulations lined up vertically which we do not have.  I would expect this to continue throughout most of the day so rapid strengthening is not expected early this morning. It could develop a closed level of circulation today but will need convection to aid in the development of this.

shear

Conditions will still be a little limited as it approaches northern South America. There is a line of mountains that exist close to the coast. In this situation, the air flows over the mountains and as it descends the air will warm and dry. This is not conducive for tropical cyclones so as it gets closer to the coast I would expect rapid strengthening and could possibly weaken a little.

mountains

There are some disagreements among the models as to how close it gets to the South American coast. You have the CMC and Euro both bringing it close to the coast while the GFS 100-200 miles north of them. At this point the difference being as small as it is, I don’t believe this will have a major impact on the future of the storm. The shear will decrease as it pulls away from the South American coast which will allow for intensification. Given water temperatures in the area, significant intensification is possible.

The question will then turn to where will this go in the future. That part remains uncertain but there are a couple of things we are noticing in the models. The models 5 days out have had a major spread among them as to when and where this system makes the hard right turn to the north. This is due to the future placement of the upper-level trough extending southward over the eastern US.

The exact placement of this trough will influence when and where the storm turns. So right now the current thinking on what where the trough will be. All the models are indicating that a trough will be over the southeast. Some are showing a westward placement and some are showing a further eastern placement. The western placement will mean a later turn to the north which will take it over central-western Cuba and into the Florida coast. A far east placement would cause the storm to turn earlier and take it out to see. That leave a placement in between that would potentially send it up the east coast.

weakness

Relying on exact forecast models at this stage in terms of exact track of the systems is foolish but do give us a idea of where the situation stands as of now. The current GFS takes the storm near/over ENC. The Euro does not extend far enough out to show an ENC impact but it’s placement just off the east coast of Florida leaves me to believe there would be impacts in ENC as well. I would also like to point out two days ago the forecast models were completely different than there are now with little to no impact on ENC. This goes back to what I was saying earlier. Don’t rely solely on models this far out.

97l

With that said I want to encourage everyone from Florida to New York to make plans in the event this storm affects you. Make sure you have supplies to make it through the storm and evacuation plans if this were needed. We will be waiting a long time for this storm to show where it’s going so this gives everyone ample opportunity to prepare now. Right now if the models check out, we could be dealing with a category 2 or 3 hurricane when it reaches the US.

I will be back online around 1:00-2:00 pm for any updates I deem significant.

As always this forecast may not agree with the forecast from the NHC or NWS. This forecast is solely an opinion based of my years of education and experience  and am not affiliated with any public or private institution. Always consult the NHC, NWS, or local authorities for official information.

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