Pacific Discussion

  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    by (nhcwebmaster) on January 16, 2018 at 9:19 PM

    000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1918 UTC Tue Jan 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A cold front in the NW Gulf of Mexico will continue to shift SE. High pressure building behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient over the area, and help increase winds to strong gales across Tehuantepec tonight. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force by Friday. The resultant plume of NE swell has propagated well southwest of Tehuantepec, with seas to 8 ft and higher currently reaching as far S as the Equator and as far W as 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N77W to 08N86W to 05N92W. The ITCZ extends from 05N92W to 07N117W to 07N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 80W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 98W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 130W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special feature section for information about the ongoing gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. W of the Baja California Peninsula: Large NW swell is propagating into the waters west of the Baja Peninsula, with seas of 9 to 12 ft prevailing. This large swell will generate powerful surf along the coasts and outer reefs of Baja and mainland Mexico through Wed. Another set of NW swell will reach the offshore waters off Baja California Norte Thursday night. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 16 ft by Friday. Seas 12 ft or greater will spread across the offshore waters off the entire length of the Baja Peninsula through the weekend. Gulf of California: Light to moderate NW flow is forecast across across the entire gulf waters through Fri, except for a brief period of fresh winds Wed afternoon through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE gap winds winds will pulse to strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo the remainder of the week. Elsewhere N of 09N moderate offshore gap winds will diminish to light to gentle midweek. S of 09N light to gentle winds will prevail. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large, long period NW swell is propagating SE across the forecast waters. Seas in the 12 to 14 ft range prevail W of a line from 30N116W to 15N120W to 10N125W. Seas of 8 ft or greater associated to this swell prevail W of 110W. The next pulse of large NW swell will enter the NW waters Wednesday night, with seas peaking near 18 ft. This swell will build seas greater than 12 ft over much of the waters N of 15N and W of 120W by Sat night. $$ AL […]