Increased Chances Of Wintry Precipitation Wednesday Night
Updated 1-1-18 2:21PM
Due to time I will have to keep this as short as possible but I will be back later this afternoon to elaborate on the fine details.
Most of the models indicated the chances of wintry precipitation increasing with the coastal storm on Thursday night though what type is uncertain at this time.
I use the term “wintry precipitation” since the type of precipitation will be governed by the track of the storm. We have seen this several times in the past and this storm is no different.
As of this post, the GFS and Euro have similar solutions with regard to the storm. The 12Z NAM has a more significant solution that has a larger impact on the region. The biggest difference here is the proximity of the low with respect to the coast. In this case, the NAM brings the low close to the coast adding another element to the situation. Like we saw last winter, if the low is close to the coast, warm air aloft will begin moving inland, warming it upper levels, and bring with it different precipitation types. How far inland it would go would determine the rain/ice/snow line for portions of our area. The other issue would be an increase in precipitation over the GFS making where the rain/ice/snow line extremely important. More precipitation that could fall as ice is a major problem for our area.
The GFS and Euro keep the low further offshore where precipitation would reach most of the inland portions of ENC. Forecast profiles during this portion of the forecast would support all snow for most sections as warm air aloft remains offshore. Right now I am leaning towards the GFS/Euro solution though would like to continue seeing consistency before making a judgement. As always, I will not post forecast totals this far out so do not expect any from me today.
This is my interpretation of the forecast model solutions and may be different than the NWS. Always consult official sources before making any decisions and do not rely on information from unofficial sources on the internet.
I will provide a more detailed forecast later this afternoon when I have more time.
Update: Both GFS and Euro have shifted a little to the west but very little. 20 of 21 12Z GFS ensembles have precipitation over ENC mainly at snow.
Update: As mentioned, the GFS and ECMWF are still similar in the forecast track off the coast though the 12Z ECMWF increased its speed and a slight shift to the west. The ensemble members have tightened somewhat considering the complexity of the forecast. Right now chances remain high for wintry precipitation for ENC Wednesday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Update: The most recent 18Z NAM shows forecast wind gusts over 40 mph for inland sections as the low off the coast deepens.
Will post a new update tomorrow evening with forecast amounts.