97L: Quick Update

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Update 4:52 PM: Recon did not find a closed surface circulation, therefore there will not be a tropical cyclone classification at this time. Conditions will continue to be conducive for development but as for right now it is not a tropical cyclone.

Note (Noon): At mid-day there were no changes in current forecast thinking. Aircraft recon scheduled for 18Z Tuesday. If they get a reading of the storm and surrounding environment, this data could be input into the 00Z models which should help with the forecast. Convection has increased around the majority of the suspected center and we could be looking at an upgrade in the next day or two.

A quick morning update on the progress of 97L. The storm has not organized as much as expected over the past 6 hours. Some stronger convection has fired up this morning in where we might expect the center of location to form. If it can sustain this convection, this could be the catalyst needed to become a tropical cyclone.

Since 97L has moved to higher latitudes, the coriolus force will be a helping factor in spinning up the system. Environmental conditions around this system are conducive for tropical cyclone development and we could expect that to occur either today or tomorrow. Aircraft recon is expected to fly into this storm Tuesday afternoon so we will be able to get an idea of what is going on underneath the storm and potentially find out if there is a closed center of circulation. If this is the case we can expect this system to be classified as a tropical depression but I wouldn’t be surprised if the system jumps to tropical storm classification. If that is the case, the storm will become Matthew.

For the forecast, we are still in the same thinking as yesterday afternoon. We will see a trough dive southward over the southeastern States as we go into this weekend. This will begin to slow the system in the southern Caribbean later this week. The system will then begin moving northward over Hispaniola. The timing and exact track of this system is still highly uncertain. Options for this system comes down to placement of trough and speed of cyclone. If the trough is further west than forecast, we could expect a track closer to Florida and Gulf of Mexico (right now lowest % chance). If the trough is a little east of that, a track up the coast with potential for landfall along the east coast which could include South Carolina and North Carolina. If the trough is even further to the east, we will see it stay hundreds of miles off the coast but in this scenario, there is a chance that it would turn northwest and make landfall on the northeast states. We also have the completely out to sea chances as well.

As we stand right now, model supports a track along the east coast with chances of landfall in North Carolina. To be fair, yesterday’s models kept it out to sea. I want to reiterate that we are talking about the forecast of a system that is still over a week away and the forecast could change wildly throughout the rest of the week. Areas from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast States need to monitor this system closely over the next week. If you are in these areas, make sure you have a plan in the event that your area gets hit. This looks like it could be a powerful Hurricane so make sure you are prepared.

I will continue to update later today with a more detailed forecast discussion.

I want to remind readers to always listen to the NHC and NWS for official information regarding this system. The view above represent my forecast opinion and not the opinion of the NHC.

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